✈️ Fuel prices spiked — now travel costs are being permanently reset.
The gap between companies that adapted and those that didn’t is widening fast.

If your travel policy still reflects pre-crisis reality, you’re already overspending.

Time to choose your side — before Q3 locks it in.

Seven days ago, we broke down the jet fuel spike and what it meant for your travel budget. Since then, the picture has sharpened - and the divide between prepared and exposed companies is now impossible to ignore.

Brent crude is trading around $111. WTI hovers near $97. Jet fuel in northwest Europe remains above $1,400 per tonne - roughly 70% higher than pre-crisis levels.

The initial shock is over. What's replacing it is a structural repricing of business travel that will last well into Q3 - regardless of how the geopolitical situation evolves.

Here's who's winning, who's losing, and what the smartest travel programs are doing right now.

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The airlines that locked in fuel prices months ago are now sitting on a massive competitive advantage - and they know it.

Ryanair is the clearest winner. CEO Michael O'Leary confirmed last week that their hedging covers them through the summer. While competitors scramble with surcharges, Ryanair is holding fares flat and grabbing market share. Their European short-haul bookings are up double digits since the crisis began.

easyJet (84% hedged for H1) and Lufthansa Group (82% hedged Q1) are in similar positions. Both are maintaining fare stability on intra-European routes while unhedged competitors add surcharges weekly.

The practical move: If your travel policy doesn't prioritize hedged carriers yet, this is the week to update it. On European routes, the fare gap between hedged and unhedged airlines is now 15-25% - and growing.

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SAS - with zero fuel hedging for the next 12 months - has now implemented three separate fare increases since the crisis began. Their Scandinavian routes are up 18-22% versus pre-crisis pricing.

U.S. majors remain largely unhedged. United CEO Scott Kirby said last week at JPMorgan's conference that he expects to recover "100% of the fuel cost increase" through higher fares - projecting a $400M fuel hit but banking on a 14% booking increase plus fare hikes to offset it.

Air New Zealand suspended its 2026 financial outlook entirely. They're flying blind on costs.

The pattern is clear: unhedged carriers are passing every dollar directly to corporate travel budgets. If you're booking transatlantic or transpacific on American, United, or Delta - expect 10-15% higher fares than you budgeted, with more increases coming.

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Here's a development nobody predicted: Gulf carriers are loosening their loyalty program qualification tiers.

Etihad has reduced qualification thresholds by approximately 25%. Qatar Airways is making similar adjustments. The reason? The conflict is hitting their premium repeat flyers hardest - disrupted Middle East routes mean fewer flights, which means fewer miles earned, which means fewer elite status renewals.

For corporate travel programs that rely on Gulf carrier loyalty tiers for upgrades and perks, this is actually good news. Your travelers can maintain status with fewer flights. But it also signals that Gulf carriers expect the disruption to last months, not weeks.

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Last week we warned about potential fuel shortages. That risk hasn't gone away - it's intensified.

Kuwait's Al-Zour refinery - responsible for roughly 10% of Europe's jet fuel imports - remains at reduced capacity. The Strait of Hormuz, through which 50% of Europe's aviation kerosene passes, continues to face disruption.

The FAA is tightening safety rules near major airports. Airlines are rerouting Asia-Europe flights to avoid Middle Eastern airspace, adding 2-4 hours and significant fuel burn to already expensive routes.

Sparta Commodities warned last week they expect "flight cancellations or delays due to lack of jet fuel" within weeks. Finnair, despite strong hedging, flagged availability concerns for Q2.

What this means: Even if prices stabilize, capacity constraints will keep fares elevated. Fewer available seats = higher prices, regardless of fuel costs.

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We've been talking to travel managers across our network. The companies adapting fastest share three common moves:

If your CFO hasn't seen these scenarios yet, they need to before April budgets lock.

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Translation: your travel budget absorbs 100% of that fuel increase.

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The oil crisis has created a two-tier aviation market. On one side: hedged European carriers holding prices, rail alternatives gaining share, and prepared travel programs saving 15-20% through smart booking policies. On the other: unhedged carriers passing through every cost, last-minute bookers paying premium, and companies still running pre-crisis budgets that are already 10-15% underwater.

Which tier is your company in?

Travel Code's AI-powered platform automatically routes bookings to the most cost-effective options - including rail alternatives - and enforces advance purchase policies that save an average of 15% per trip. When every dollar counts, smart routing isn't optional. See how it works → https://travel-code.com/en/b2b

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GBTA's updated 2026 forecast drops next week. We'll break down what it means for corporate travel spending - and whether the $1.69 trillion projection survives.

Save up to 20% on corporate travel with Travel Code’s powerful tech, no legacy systems, and personal service across flights, hotels, and more. ✈️ 💛

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